The goal of the DANGER Report is to provide the residential Real Estate Industry with a comprehensive and objective analysis of the most significant threats, risks, and black swans that could possibly impact the industry. The Report does not identify solutions for any danger. It was decided at the beginning of the project that creating solutions is the responsibility of each respective leader and organization. The initial research was focused on the residential real estate brokerage industry in the United States. Subsequent studies covering commercial real estate, property management, and the global markets outside the U.S. are being considered.
Remember that the 50 dangers listed in the DANGER Report are hypothetical and about future events that may or may not occur. No confidential information was included in this Report. The content of the report does not reflect the opinion of the National Association of REALTORS®, its management or elected leaders.
As far as possible, the information gathered is provided with its original intent and messaging intact. Information may or may not apply to your market and you are always urged to use sound judgment and consult with proper counsel and experts before making any significant decisions.
The research data, survey results, and interview responses were categorized into one of five major sections of the industry: Agents, Brokers, National Association of REALTORS®, State/Local Associations of REALTORS®, and MLS organizations, and published in a 164 page report.
Each danger is presented on a double page, with a reference number (category and ranking; e.g. A1 – most severe danger in the Agent section), followed by a descriptive title, a short statement of the danger, an “In Context” section providing background on the danger, and a perspective by the author. Threat levels are estimated by determining the Probability, Timing, and Impact (PTI) of each danger. The scores are based on the research, surveys, input by the Strategic Thinking Advisory Committee, and Stefan Swanepoel.
The DANGER Report also provides a detailed checklist of all dangers—first in priority order by section and second in overall combined priority. Readers can personalize their danger list by changing any of the PTI scores. Slide decks are also available for your personal use and can be downloaded from the websites listed.
We acknowledge that catastrophic type events— such an Economic Collapse, a major Natural Disaster, a Global Disease Outbreak, a significant Terrorist Attack, and/ or a Nuclear Accident—would most likely trigger a chain reaction of events negatively impacting society, the housing market, and the real estate business. These types of phenomenon have been excluded from the Report.
To ensure that the DANGER Report would be representative of the industry, an extensive survey of REALTOR® members was undertaken in 2014 and incorporates 7,899 responses.
In addition to the research and survey, 74 CEOs/senior executives from franchisors, real estate brokerage companies, national, state, and local REALTOR® Associations, MLS organizations, and large technology companies were interviewed. Each CEO was asked the same five open-ended questions. In order to obtain unfiltered information, the interviews were all conducted as confidential one-on-one, face-to-face interviews by New York Times best selling author Stefan Swanepoel. No contribution is attributed to any specific person in the Report.
The Swanepoel | T3 Group furthermore researched over 6,050 pages of reports, surveys, studies, abstracts, white papers, and articles.